TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY FROM POLITICAL MOBILIZATION PERSPECTIVE

Our objective in this article is to explain democratic transitions
by employing some concepts from the theory of mobilization,
especially the notion of "transitional Situations".
From such a theoretical perspective three major questions
arise:
1) what constitutes a transitional situation as distinct from a
non-transitional one?
2) How is a transitional situation brought about?
3) More importantly, what factors lead the transitional
situation to a democratic outcome rather than to a
non-democratic one?
Thus a transitional situation may end up in the reconsolidation
of the existing authoritarian regime, in the establishment of
another undemocratic one or in the rise of a democracy.
To answer the last question, three factors will be taken into
account: 1) the social conditions of mobilization in the transitional
situation; i.e. what type of social conditions- in terms of the civil
society and mass society debate- will push the transitional
situation towards a democratic alternative? 2) the agents of
political mobilization in the transitional situation; i.e. what type of
oposition forces are active and how do democratic opposition
groups weigh against nondemocratic ones? 3) the political
conditions of mobilization in the transitional situation in terms of
the structure of the regime, the unity or internal conflicts of the
ruling elites and the likelihood of its demise or persistence
through time. To empirically support the argument we will
examind some evidence in relation to transitions from
communism in East Europe and Central Asia. The variety of
regimes emerging after the transitions in the 27 countries once
forming the Republics of Soviet Union and its satelite states has
provoked much sociological thought as to the causes of the
different outcomes.
We have tried to present an explanation of the different paths
and outcomes of the transitions in terms of the three major
variables mentioned above.